We are currently navigating the Fourth Turning of the technological age. The convergence of artificial intelligence, sovereign debt crises, and geopolitical fragmentation has created a market environment that defies standard "buy and hold" logic.
The gap between price and value is where history hides its lessons.
1. The Innovation Supercycle
Just as the radio boom of the 1920s transformed communication before crashing into reality, the current AI infrastructure build-out represents a classic capital expenditure cycle. We remain long on the infrastructure providers but cautious on the application layer until the "deployment phase" begins in earnest.
2. Hard Assets in a Soft World
As fiat currencies face debasement pressure from unserviceable debt loads, we prioritize assets with finite scarcity. This is not merely a gold bug's lament, but a structural rotation into energy, commodities, and land.
3. The Geopolitical Premium
Globalization is not dead, but it is re-wiring. We invest in the "connector" economies—nations like Singapore, Vietnam, and Mexico—that stand to benefit from the decoupling of Great Power supply chains.
This thesis is a living document, updated quarterly to reflect the shifting macro-economic tides.